Episode 4: Supercycles, Mass Adoption, and Quantum Computing
In this episode, we talk all about the history of supercycles, and why we might be in one right now as it pertains to the cryptocurrency bull run. We also talk about mass adoption of blockchain and what the hurdles, risks, and benefits are. To top it off, we talk about quantum computing and the threat it poses to current cryptographic schemes, including our entire data infrastructure.
This transcription was generated automatically with AI. Inconsistencies and errors will occur.
Calvin: [00:00:00] What's up everybody. This is Calvin. Your host of The Crypto Drip podcast. I'm sitting here in my studio. This is, uh, this is quite early in the morning for me. I've got my coffee and I hope you do too. As I talked to Mr. Goose in this episode about inflation mass adoption and quantum computing without further ado, let's get into it.
[00:00:22] And, um, Make sure you join our discord at thecryptodrip.com/join/. It's completely free. Let's do it.
[00:00:43] I'm going to just start off with a question for you. So, um, I hear a lot in crypto, especially in the trading space, this idea of cycles. Right? So usually four year cycles, I think, is what I hear it the most. Um, but lately, and especially in this, this most recent one, I've heard what's called super cycles.
[00:01:07] Um, can you explain a little bit what that means? Because to me, it just sounds like, I don't know, uh, an Epic dance party or something. I don't know.
[00:01:18] Mr. Goose: [00:01:18] Yeah. So I mean, cycles are everywhere, right? Like in the financial aspect, you can see cycles in almost anything like let's take a look at business cycles, right over the course of the last century and the United States, there are rises and there are falls, um, and things happen more in a cyclical nature.
[00:01:38] This, this mostly goes, you know, to show that things happen in patterns and human behavior. Um, Or at least the way that humans recognize patterns, um, show this. Right? Right. So when you have a new speculative asset, something like cryptocurrency, um, and there isn't a history behind it. Humans like humans look for patterns.
[00:02:01] Like that's how they go about. The world. Right? So, so, and something is new or something new, like cryptocurrency, they're going to look for patterns. Right. And that's how we came up with the cycle. Um, there's this pattern, right? That happens every four years in Bitcoin halves. And we've noticed that after the havening or the having, um, there is a rise or there is asset inflation for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies, um, in general.
[00:02:27] So. That in itself is a pattern for us to analyze and therefore it becomes something that's tradable, right? So, so it creates this economy of traders or speculators. Now this recycle narrative is basically equivalent or akin to the watershed moment for cryptocurrency, right? The moment that it becomes. No longer a speculative asset, right?
[00:02:56] It becomes this institutional grade risk asset, you know, akin to something like high yield bonds or equities. Right. And the window of time in which that happens, we don't know. Right. We don't know when it's going to happen. We don't know how long it's going to take. For it to, for this Supercycle to play out.
[00:03:17] Right. You know, but, but likely we'll see tens of trillions of dollars flood into the market at peak at peak market times. Right. And like I said, how long, how long is that going to take? Is it going to take eight years, right? Will it, will it, um, take two cycles, you know, to normal four year cycles for this to play out or will it be a six month vertical moonshot?
[00:03:42] Right. So we don't really know, but that's really what the Supercycle is. And it's been floating around in the crypto world since, as far as I know, as early, as like 2016, before that 17, 18 bull run. Um, and honestly it has only been gaining traction ever since, but, but that's really what the Supercycle is.
[00:04:02] Calvin: [00:04:02] I gotcha. Yeah. So like, would it, would it be accurate to kind of think of it like the end of the four year cycle? Pattern, I guess I do
[00:04:14] Mr. Goose: [00:04:14] agree. I think it's going to, it's going to be the crux of the cryptocurrency market. It'll hit its peak. After that. I think it just becomes, you know, an asset trades much like equities or stocks.
[00:04:29] Calvin: [00:04:29] yeah. So, so on the flip side, like let's just say that this is not the Supercycle. Would that imply a bear market again before we have another, um, Another, uh, bullish market again after the next cycle. Yeah.
[00:04:46] Mr. Goose: [00:04:46] So definitely Laura, right? Like things like this, like, like bull markets are never like, even the Supercycle is going to have a bear market afterwards.
[00:04:54] Like no bull market lasts forever. Right. The reality is though, you know, even if this isn't the Supercycle by the end of the cycle, we'll see multi-trillion dollar market cap, which only means that there are going to be more. Wholesalers. They're going to be more people who believe in the asset itself, um, holding onto their, you know, portion or holding onto their asset over the long run, which means that bear market draw downs.
[00:05:22] Aren't going to be as significant as they are in the past. And they're only going to be less significant as we move forward. I do think, however, though, the Supercycle will be the last time. We have a bear market to the, you know, 20% ranges even like after that, you know, things will move in a cyclical nature of, you know, at most 10%.
[00:05:45] Right. Like,
[00:05:46] Calvin: [00:05:46] yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So it sounds kind of like the Supercycle signifies mass adoption, is that pretty accurate?
[00:05:55] Mr. Goose: [00:05:55] Yes. And yes. And I mean, like, there are reasons. Why that's possible outside of, you know, the psychological reality, right? Like, like if you think about it this way, like we live in this world where information is more inclusive than it's ever been.
[00:06:14] Right. So, so narratives get to leverage that inclusivity of information and like in much more grander way. Right. So. The fact that the Supercycle narrative even exists, right. Exponentially increases the likelihood of it happening, right. Because
[00:06:31] Calvin: [00:06:31] that's really a generic
[00:06:32] Mr. Goose: [00:06:32] narrative drive the crypto markets more than anything.
[00:06:35] Right. And the network effect that that's going to have within our, you know, within our cryptocurrency centric environment. Right. It's going to be impossible for governments and legacy institutions to ignore so that moment's coming. And the re and the fact that, like I said, the fact that that Supercycle narrative exists and the digital world that we live in to where information spreads the way that it spreads increases the chances of it happening on, you know, multiple phones.
[00:07:00] Calvin: [00:07:00] Yeah. Yeah. It's kinda interesting because, so my question, I guess, is sort of like, how do you, how do you even know that you're in. Um, in a Supersite or like what's the confirmation signals that say you're in a super cycle or do you only know it after the fact.
[00:07:23] Mr. Goose: [00:07:23] You know, their ideas as well, right? It might, it could be painfully obvious.
[00:07:26] Like I said, it could be a six month moonshot and we'd be like, Whoa, that was it. And we went to, you know, tens of trillions of dollars in Mark, Kevin we're like, well, that was a super cycle. Or it can play out over the long run and drag out eight to 10 years where we continually go up without a bear market.
[00:07:38] Right. And that would be equivalent to a Supercycle of mass adoption. Right. So, but the reality, yeah. Yeah. The reality is, is the patient investors is going to win. Right? Like I, I do believe like wholesalers are going to win this one. When the Supercycle does come because traders and speculators are going to get in their own way.
[00:07:56] And they're going to call top signals for themselves thinking that the market can no longer go any higher or get any more overheated because, because the patterns don't show it. And like we said, humans always look for patterns and they're going to trade off of that. So I do think the holders are going to win this one.
[00:08:09] I do think Supercycle mass adoption is coming outside of just the psychological narrative or that I explained earlier. Like there are. Tangible real world financial reasons why that is. And I do kind of want to go into that a little bit and kind of go on of a, on a, on a rant here. Uh, if we've got time.
[00:08:31] Yeah. Go for it. Okay. So how, like the, the question one answer is how, how does cryptocurrency become adopted? Like, what are the, what are the reasons why something like this, what happened? Right. So the question shouldn't be, how do we know in one it should be, what are the reasons why one is likely. Right.
[00:08:51] And so just like any Jessica I was explaining earlier, right. We look into the past to figure out patterns. So the answer to that is in history. And I mean, I'm going to draw out kind of what's happening now. Um, and we're going to go all the way back to the 1980s. So in the eighties, there were three unique distinct events that took place.
[00:09:15] And that led to the largest stock boom in history and really started. A litany of problems that we still face to this day. So number one was the baby boomer generation, right after world war II, everybody came back, they had kids and now it's, it was, it became the largest generation ever globally. Now, when they hit maturation was in the eighties, which means they're at peak spending age, right.
[00:09:42] At the same time. Number two wall street just started trading in derivatives and the dollar environment. And they also offered baby boomers, pension funds and 401ks, which increased the amount of liquidity in the stock market. So this lead's also because they said, Hey baby boomers, we're going to give you these pension funds and these 401ks that pretty much guarantee your retirement at 60% of your retirement earning potential.
[00:10:04] So they're like, okay, perfect. I have, you know, my whole life ahead of me and my retirement's paid for, so their savings rate declined and they put all their savings into the equities market three, they got access to credit, right. They introduced the credit card. So basically they, again, they didn't, they didn't have to use their savings to buy consumer products.
[00:10:23] They just put on credit, which means they put it all into the equities market, which bloomed the equity market. Now this meant that wall street. Was pretty much taking advantage right. Of the biggest consumption era that the United States saw and likely the biggest Everett, you know, it we'll see cause they were extending credit to the largest number of peak spending people ever and making interest on it.
[00:10:46] Then they were running derivative schemes on those interest rates. Can
[00:10:49] Calvin: [00:10:49] you, can you explain a derivative scheme?
[00:10:53] Mr. Goose: [00:10:53] So basically they'll take the derivative would be like a, a hedge, right? So they would take. The interest rate that they lend out or they offer us credit and they would pair them up with a.
[00:11:10] Somebody else who has a different interest rate and they would hedge the risk in between and they would take a transaction fee. And that would sort of be how they would do a derivative scheme in the interest world, because you can do a derivative on a lot of things. Like, you know, we'll talk about it later on, but, you know, in the housing bubble, um, to introduce the credit default swaps, which were essentially derivatives games, um, you know, kinda interest rates games, but that's sort of what that's sort of what they are.
[00:11:36] They're just hedging strategies. Okay. Okay.
[00:11:39] Calvin: [00:11:39] So it's not necessarily like, not necessarily when I hear scheme, you know, I'm, I'm thinking something. Oh
[00:11:45] Mr. Goose: [00:11:45] yeah. Oh yeah. I see what you mean. Yeah. Scheme does have a negative connotation to it, but in the sense it's literally just a, you know, a strategy. Okay. They were running strategies on those interest rates.
[00:11:55] Um, and w while at the same time, they were gaining liquidity from pension funds and interest from credit cards. Right. And they were using that to speculate even more on risk, risk assets, like equities, right. And all the while baby boomers were S you know, spending. An insane amount, right? Because they have an insane amount of spending power now with all this credit and guess what the baby boomers love to spend.
[00:12:19] Right? So this led to an absolutely massive market overvaluation, you know, from 1982 to 87, and as some may know, in 87 was, it was black Monday is when the stock market crashed. Um, and it really doesn't have a role to play in, in this Bitcoin Supercycle reasoning. Like the tangible reasoning as to why I think mass adoption is coming.
[00:12:40] Um, But I will kind of explain the, the 87 crash. Cause it does actually have a little bit of, you know, connection to, to, to today's Bitcoin markets. Like an 87 was the first time they were really using financial trading algorithms to, you know, balance out the market. Right. And it was the first time where, you know, investors panicked, you know, from whatever media they see or however they.
[00:13:06] You're right. It's a very, you know, emotional investment in the NSL off, right on that Monday, they sold off in the morning and that triggered a bunch of forced automatic liquidations, which plunged the market into the ground. Right. And that's why I'm saying is it's a little bit, you know, similar because we see that all the time in Bitcoin, right?
[00:13:22] People see some news like India, you know, like, uh, or Turkey banning, banning crypto, and they'll sell off and then we'll hit some forced liquidation limit and boom, the market plunges. So 87 was really the global moment. In the legacy world where that kind of happened. Um, but that was like I said, not really akin to the reasoning why mass adoption is coming.
[00:13:43] Um, but that did kind of explain the, the, the market drop, um, in 87, after that stock, boom. So to move on from there, the stock market continued to inflate, right. And became massively overheated in 2000, right after the.com bubble. Right. So this led to massive fortunes being lost, right. Because the baby boomers put all of their savings inequities.
[00:14:07] Right. And they lost a majority of it. Right. During that 2000 equity bust. So that would Mark the first time that they lost a bunch of money, that they were hoping was going to be their vehicle into retirement, outside of pension funds, because pension let's keep in mind that pension funds are still doing their thing, right.
[00:14:24] Instead of guaranteeing that they have this, you know, preserved retirement. So that was, that marks the first time that really they failed in this risk on asset and they lost fortunes. So now they're scared a little bit. Now, these Beamer baby boomers are like, I don't really want to go back into equity investing.
[00:14:40] I just lost a ton of money. Where do I find something less volatile? This is in the early two thousands real estate. So they start moving money into property right now. They just, they just made it through this stock market bubble. Right. And they had some extra capital left to invest and, and potentially retire.
[00:14:58] Now as we all know, and to the housing crisis, right? So the financial crisis in 2008, that's now we start seeing signs right. Of the Bitcoin Supercycle of this mass adoption narrative, which basically is the irresponsibility of, and mismanagement of funds at the state and national level. But let's get back into 2008.
[00:15:21] So. Pretty much the reason, obviously, outside of this mismanagement of money, it was firstly again, unregulated derivatives games. Like I was talking about earlier with those credit default swaps, there were, and then subprime mortgage lending and then mortgage backed securities in the secondary market.
[00:15:40] Right. And that, that led everybody, or that led everything into the 2008 housing crisis that we all know. Now that would Mark the second time that baby boomers go bust on their savings. And the reason why the baby boomers are so important is because, like I said, they're the largest generation. Therefore they have the largest earning potential and they're the largest labor force workers, which means they have the largest play, a role to play in, you know, economic activity in GDP.
[00:16:05] So to this point, right, almost all financial and economic decisions that have been made in the state national level. We're made around this consumer centric economy. Right? Which means the decisions made in the eighties to introduce those pension funds and those credit cards to the baby boomer generation was made with the belief that consumerism would parallel their earning potential or their earning potential in some sort of linear fashion over time.
[00:16:33] Right. The reality is preceding generations. The millennials, the gen Z are much smaller, substantially smaller than the baby boomer generation. And they're less likely to enter the labor force. Right? So, so this credit bubble is not, it's just not sustainable and we're, and we're going to see that play out here in a little bit, but this just means that there's decreased earning potential.
[00:16:55] And, and to be honest, the baby boomers never really fully realized their earning potential. Right. But the reason they gave them these credit cards was to say, Hey, I know that you can make more money as you mature and pay off your credit debts. The re the, the, the actuality is they never really, you know, realize that foreign and potential over the course of their, you know, um, working age.
[00:17:17] Right. So that marks that the second time that they lost. Money in their own or with their own savings all the while, like I said, pension funds are still spending their money still managing their money. Now this enters the third big bubble, right? We had the first stock market bust. Now we had the real estate bus.
[00:17:35] Now we're in the third bubble here and this is the big one. And the reason why it's big is because it's no longer. Okay. In the hands of the baby boomers. This is a bubble driven by central banks, driven by corporations, driven by hedge funds by pension funds, all mismanaging money. Right. Right. And we got corporations doing share buybacks.
[00:17:58] We have, you know, central banks, hoarding reserves of cash and slowing velocity, the velocity of money. Um, and this all affects economic activity, which directly affects GDP, which shows up in our economy. So guess what, when this bubbles happening and we have asset inflation like we do now, it becomes drastically apparent that our economy is not doing well while the, while our assets are, are massively overinflated.
[00:18:27] And all that goes to show is the rich or getting richer. Right. And, and, and Housewives just don't have the money to invest. Right. Which means hedge fund managers. Like I said, pension fund managers, C-level corporate heads initiating stock buybacks, Paula. And, you know, for fact politicians are reaping the rewards as well.
[00:18:45] And you know, don't even get me started with software and technology. They're eating away jobs at unprecedented rates. Right. And. Yeah. Like we talked about last week when AI comes, it's going to be the catalyst for the permanence of that wealth gap, because it's going to take away so many of those low level redundant labor jobs.
[00:19:07] So, you know, so forget about, um, forget what, um, that for a second consumer debt. Has doubled since 2000, right? As households, like they're just trying to cover their bills and it's in the trillions of dollars auto loan debt just hit over a trillion dollars for the first time in history. Last year, student loan debt is at record highs.
[00:19:35] You know, like what is going on, right? This is the biggest bubble we have ever seen. And it has nothing to do with the management of money from the people in society. It is all the management of money from. Corporations from institutions to, you know, even the banks. So, but, but here's the thing, the X factor in all of this is COVID, you know, and what it's done is create this monetary and fiscal policy where we have this unprecedented amount of money printing and how it affects the economy over time.
[00:20:08] I don't know. I don't know if anybody knows, you know, all I do know is there's this massive wealth gap that's happening outside. Of the peoples, like outside of the management of the people's money, it is all happening by the institutions and it is creating this divide of wealth that I think is going. To come to light sooner rather than later within this decade.
[00:20:34] For sure. And I think that will be the moment where mass adoption happens for cryptocurrency, because the reality is the best playing field leveler will be Bitcoin defy and cryptocurrency. And until people see that. And when that moment happens, I think that's when the Supercycle happens.
[00:20:52] Calvin: [00:20:52] Yeah. It's almost like the escape ramp right.
[00:20:56] Of a monetary system. That's
[00:20:58] Mr. Goose: [00:20:58] broke. Exactly. Exactly. Like, yeah. It's, uh, you know, it, it's frustrating when you, when you really think about like, when you really try to. Understanding the uncover. Why like everyone, everyone here in the crypto industry gets happy when they think about the Supercycle, but the Supercycle was born from blood man.
[00:21:18] Like that's like, it's, there are going to be a lot of people left behind when it does happen. And the best thing that we can do is try to shed light on this, on this important fact that there is a massive problem brewing in the background of these financial institutions and. People know there are people now like there, uh, you know, now that cryptocurrency is coming into to, you know, it's maturity, like people are starting to realize this will be, this will be the Avenue that we level the playing field here.
[00:21:48] And the best thing we can do is to help as many as people as we can understand this. So, yeah. That's,
[00:21:55] Calvin: [00:21:55] um, I think it's, it's sort of, it's like a really great history, um, overview. Thank you for that. That explains a lot. Um, It's kind of interesting because I think the, maybe the reality of where we are in the current monetary system is not, or at least up until this point, hasn't been super noticeable for the average, um, the average consumer, but ever since, um, COVID and the money printing that happens, you know, there's like this talk of inflation on the us dollar that was going to come.
[00:22:30] And, uh, you know, people have been worrying about this forever. Ever since we went off the gold standard and started printing our own money. There's always been kind of that narrative of like, um, we're just digging ourselves a deeper hole. Um, but you know, to put it into practical terms, this. Like inflation is actually just starting to be noticeable.
[00:22:53] And I'll give you an example, like, um, you know, so we we've been doing some like upgrades on our house and last year we put in a fence and the fence is made out of Cedar. And at the time I chose Cedar because. It was cheaper than vinyl. Um, and vinyl fencing is just better fencing. Um, but you know, we went with, we went with wood for obvious reasons.
[00:23:20] This year I'm going to have to do some additional fencing around the property. And I was talking to my contractor and he was like, you know what? Um, wood fencing is literally the same cost as vinyl now. Because of lumber prices and it's just, it, it it's crazy to me because the amount of the amount of cost difference was almost upwards of three, three times as much for vinyl.
[00:23:45] Mr. Goose: [00:23:45] Yeah. It's insane. Come on. Commodity inflation is pretty crazy right now, but, but the thing with lumber is like, um, yes, there is obviously inflation, uh, but the lumber market got hit harder because. In 2019, there were like a ton of productions that the housing market wasn't going to do great in 2020. Um, so they, they cut, you know, holding or like they cut holding capacity for the amount of lumber that they were going to hold.
[00:24:11] At least the suppliers did because they were like, well, if the housing market's not going to do well, then there's not gonna be enough repairs, not going to be enough building, et cetera, et cetera. So they had very low supply. So when the housing market didn't bust and the housing market actually took a turn for the better, um, post COVID.
[00:24:27] Um, post fiscal policy, they were extremely prepared in terms of supply. So when demand came and there was this little supply, then therefore lumber prices obviously go up. But I do agree with you at the inflation. The inflation is going to be a big problem, you know, because they're going like it's and it's going to be hidden inflation, right?
[00:24:45] Like you look at paper towel rolls like that the price will be the same, right. It's going to be four 19, right. For one paper towel roll or whatever it is. Um, But they're going to change the number of sheets in the paper towel, right? Because they can no longer afford to have 60 sheets of four 19 a towel.
[00:25:05] They need to have 40 sheets. And that's something that you're not gonna notice. There's going to be a lot of hidden inflation schemes going on. Um, yeah, just trying to monitor
[00:25:12] Calvin: [00:25:12] packages. I mean, I swear my cereal boxes are smaller now than they were when I was a kid. I, I don't have proof of that, but I
[00:25:22] Mr. Goose: [00:25:22] guarantee you it's true.
[00:25:24] Funny and obvious. Those dang lays chip bags. I swear. I get, I get like three Lay's chips and my bags now and yeah,
[00:25:34] Calvin: [00:25:34] whether it's just, I know you can, you can only, you can only do that. Um, In a hit in a subtle way for so long before you actually have to start hiking the price. So maybe
[00:25:45] Mr. Goose: [00:25:45] national national uprising against Frito-Lay.
[00:25:48] No, I, I think that possible
[00:25:50] Calvin: [00:25:50] that's it. And then that will be the catalyst for mass adoption. 100%. Exactly. Well, by, well, by lays with, uh, our, our cryptocurrency. Yeah, that'd be,
[00:26:00] Mr. Goose: [00:26:00] it would be a Frito-Lay. Um, but here's the thing. So let's say the Supercycle does happen regardless of what happens. Ma mass adoption comes, Supercycle happens.
[00:26:08] And we now have this world or this ecosystem that's run on blockchain because at the end of the day, there's an entire world outside of just Bitcoin, outside of the gold 2.0 narrative outside of the fi right? There's this entire world run on blockchain. So when that happens and when blockchain becomes adopted in a way that I think they will.
[00:26:34] And I think both of you, both of you, and I agree, like what will be on the development side? Like what are going to be the biggest barriers or the, or the like, you know, hardest things to, to maintain in terms of like security. Um, or, or anything that you can really think of? I don't, I don't mean to keep it too broad, but I just want to see what, uh, see what you think.
[00:26:57] Calvin: [00:26:57] Yeah. I mean, I always felt like, so let's go back to, um, Bitcoin being the first, you know, the first blockchain, it, it it's like law written in stone. It's very, very difficult to change. And when I say law, I'm talking about the protocols that make the blockchain work. Um, the protocols are basically just the rules of the blockchain itself.
[00:27:23] And I, you know, there was problems with Bitcoin. So in order to fix Bitcoin, right, they had to create a theorem. And that was like, Oh yeah, that's great. Ethereum is awesome. But then we ran into problems with Ethereum. We're scaling issues. And so then there's all these other things, you know, that were built even, even handling, you know, other tokens on the blockchain with Ethereum, they had to, they had to create kind of a loophole where, you know, these other assets lived in smart contracts and they weren't really actually native assets to the blockchain.
[00:27:56] So there's like a lot of things that were wrong. Um, and that's where, you know, some of these other blockchains like Tezos and Cardona and, um, You know, Al ground take your pick. They all kind of like. We have almost, you know, I don't know what the number is. I, I feel like I heard 8,000 different coins, you know, out there.
[00:28:19] It doesn't necessarily translate to blockchain, but really why do we have so many, one wanted speculation? Like, Oh, I'm just going to create a coin and, um, make a lot of money. But the other one is, well, I'm actually going to try and solve something that another blockchain doesn't solve. Um, and I think. You know, if you, if you imagine a world where everything is run on blockchain, spinning up a new blockchain, just really isn't an option anymore.
[00:28:48] You know, like if you, if you run an entire country on a blockchain, like car Dano, right? Th the amount of friction that you're going to encounter by trying to. Shift that country onto a different blockchain. After, after going through all the effort to get that the existing infrastructure onto blockchain in the first place is a much higher, higher amount of friction.
[00:29:12] So then, so then the question is for me, it's like, you know what happens when we have situations because blockchains are built with these laws, like so ingrained into their protocols, what happens when things, um, When we encounter things in the future that we couldn't have anticipated, you know, an example would be AI.
[00:29:33] I mean, it's, there's a lot of theoretical, um, knowledge about the future and what it might bring, but the truth is we really actually don't know what it might bring. We don't even know what the singularity would bring into the equation and what happens if we like we're running our entire society on a blockchain that is outdated.
[00:29:52] Right. And so then, so then the question becomes, well, how do we upgrade that? And there was. You know, that's kind of where the Dow comes in generation generation, three level protocol of right. How do we make, how do we upgrade the protocol to be, be resilient in the future? Right. And, yeah. Right. And there's a lot of like really, really good, like Cardona has a really good roadmap for that.
[00:30:18] Um, there's, there's other ones like us, but they all kind of like. The protocol is built into allowed change to the protocol, right? As long as you have certain consensus among among the network, but, you know, Mike, it gets difficult for me to be like, man, how do, how is this not going to get bogged down?
[00:30:39] Just like everyday democracy. Right, right now with politicians, you know, like if the entire, if the entire infrastructure of a country is running on the blockchain and the blockchain is the law, like. I really like, how is it different? The only difference is that it's a permanent law. It doesn't really change right on the whims of people, but people still are like the driving force behind blockchain.
[00:31:04] Right. You know, like the blockchain doesn't just run by itself. Yeah.
[00:31:08] Mr. Goose: [00:31:08] Something that comes to mind too. When you explain that, like you explained how there's going to be increased friction, once things like governments enter the blockchain space, like. So would that not mean, like there would be a race to sort of capture the most amount of, you know, governments onto one's own blockchain to therefore be sort of the center or the hub for when you know, other blockchains start becoming more interoperable with each other?
[00:31:40] Calvin: [00:31:40] Yeah. You know, I think. This is this right here is actually why interoperability matters. It's like allowing blockchains to talk to each other so, or not. Cause I mean, if you build like the entire world on a singular blockchain, I mean, you've kind of created a single point of failure. I mean, you're only as strong as your foundational blockchain, right?
[00:32:03] So I think that there is, um, That is like a pretty strong argument for creating interoperability. It's even why I'd be like, you know, I'm, I'm personally not like a huge fan of Ethereum right now, but we still kind of need a theorem. Like we still need Bitcoin. We still need all these other, we still need, you know, other blockchains that even compete with, um, blockchains, like Cardona.
[00:32:30] Like we, we still need Tezos we still need Algren. You know, and I don't know if like those blockchains. Survive the, you know, the great wash out because at the end of the day, like mass adoption is going to squeeze out competition and only the ones who really offer something are going to survive. So I don't know like what blockchain survives, what doesn't, but I am fairly confident.
[00:32:55] We're not going to have a single blockchain that runs everything. I just don't see how, how it would work, you know? Yeah.
[00:33:02] Mr. Goose: [00:33:02] I don't, I don't think so either. I just think it's interesting that, you know, like, I didn't even think about that. Right. Like, so the way that I imagine it, like for Donald's specifically is right, like they'll have.
[00:33:10] These side chains, like let's take Ethiopia, for example, like they're going to have an Ethiopia side chain connected to the settlement layer, right. And that way, that side chain that they connect to it, or be run by ether or the, the, you know, the ministry of education or whoever's going to be able to create the rules and regulations that happen on that blockchain side chain or whatever you want to call it.
[00:33:32] Um, Is going to be like almost permanently attached to Cardinals settlement layer, because as you said, like, they're just going to be way too much friction, overhead costs, like, you know, time spent to move that onto another blockchain. So I mean, like the way that I'm seeing it, like Cardona is that that only makes me believe more in Cardona's mission or their commercial arm, at least to.
[00:33:58] You know, on board, you know, as many African countries as they can, especially as they're developing into, you know, a global superpower. Um, and they can start monetizing the amount of, you know, human capital that they have. So it makes me feel even
[00:34:15] Calvin: [00:34:15] right. Yeah. And I mean, Cardona definitely has, like, the thing I love about Cardona is they didn't just think about.
[00:34:22] The technical stack. They also thought about the social stack that interacts with it. And that's kind of why I'm bullish on them because, um, they've kind of thought about these things in depth of like, how do you, how do you, um, create a blockchain for billions of people versus just, you know, a hundred thousand, but like, um, you know, that brings up another point of like, even it, even though you're going to have.
[00:34:51] Multiple blockchains. Um, there's still going to be like the, the ones with market share, right? Like, there's, there's a lot of operating systems out there, but Mac and windows are the most obvious, like they still run most things. Right. So there's still going to be like kind of a blockchain for everybody.
[00:35:09] But I think in terms of like, you know, what's the trouble with, with mass adoption? I think. It's, it's almost similar actually in a way to, um, Ethereum where it bottlenecked like it, it created this, this ability for people that people wanted, but it, it literally didn't have the support to withstand the demand that was thrust on it.
[00:35:34] And I think that's something that can, that it's, it's all theoretical until you, until you actually experience it. And even with Cardona, it's theoretical. I mean, granted it's done through peer review research, so I'm fairly confident in their theory, but right. You know, it's
[00:35:50] Mr. Goose: [00:35:50] true. I don't think there'll be anything like that.
[00:35:52] The Ethereum crypto kitties debacle we'll live with it forever. Right. And it'll be a stain on its history. But when we get to a more globally adopted state for cryptocurrency and blockchain itself, something like that, like a bottleneck in a, in a. Some, you know, in a government's blockchain that's connected to Kardon or something could also have, you know, could also have negative effects that permeates throughout the entire blockchain space.
[00:36:19] Right? Like, yeah. Say there's a bottleneck in, you know, say they onboard, you know, South Africa or something, and they're doing supply chain management and maybe there's just an influx of, you know, um, throughput and they can't process enough. And then something happens and that permeates in the real world.
[00:36:35] And now like it negatively affects the entire blockchain space, you know? Like when something like that happens. Do you think that survivable
[00:36:45] Calvin: [00:36:45] well, I mean, that's a good point too. This is actually the. Uh, um, a case for centralization. So in a typical system, especially a system like, uh, with that high of importance, it's usually built on a centralized server.
[00:37:02] And so if there's an issue, there is a bug that comes up. Like I only have to change one thing. I don't need to get approval from anybody. I just go and I change it and I fix it and we move on in a decentralized, um, network. Especially in a Dow, you have to go through voting, you have to go through proposals.
[00:37:19] Do you have to go through, it's basically like for instance, if you had a bottleneck and, um, in government, which many people will say already exists, you have to go through the whole process of getting it passed before it actually comes law. Right. And so, you know, in a blockchain, uh, in a blockchain situation where, Oh, we have a bottleneck and, uh, this is preventing, you know, whatever, this is preventing people from voting and we have to vote now or something that's not a quick fix.
[00:37:49] And that is definitely something that's like, you know, I, I did a tweet thread on this. I want to say a few days ago, but like, I actually don't see. Everything running on blockchain. I see a mix of centralized and decentralized infrastructure working together. I think that's going to be the sweet spot.
[00:38:07] Mr. Goose: [00:38:07] That seems the most, uh, liable, um, outcome for sure. Um, I th I think we talked about this a couple of weeks ago as well. Just like how, you know, just in-depthly how that would even work if the world was decentralized and ran on blockchain, like, it just seems a little, you know, unreasonable. So I do think something in between would work.
[00:38:26] Um, but I guess a more fun question, like, how do you think quantum computing is going to play a role in blockchain?
[00:38:34] Calvin: [00:38:34] Yeah, I mean, quantum computing is. It's definitely. I want to say it's insanely fascinating, but insanely difficult to wrap your head around. And I have, you know, I have like a very, very high level, uh, understanding of quantum physics and stuff, but, um, I think that the best way to explain the threat that quantum computing poses to existing blockchain is that.
[00:39:06] The way, the way that cryptography is designed is with the assumption of a computer capacity, like current capacity among computers. So it's like, well, if we, if we, um, use this cryptography to kind of, you know, scramble all the data. On this computer. Um, we know for certain that it's going to take at least, you know, a hundred thousand years for normal computers today.
[00:39:36] Right. I guess the key. Right. And so in that way you have assurance of lifetime, like, right. It it's just a non-issue. So it's really, really secure right now. The problem is, is that quantum computers. They aren't limited to the way that, and this, this may not be completely accurate, but the way that I understand the difference is that current computers today, they operate with zeros and ones.
[00:40:03] It's binary code, right. They can either have a zero or one in their slot. Right. Um, quantum computers can have a zero and a one at the same time. Which is kinda mind boggling just to, I don't even know how to wrap my head around that, around that, but essentially it allows a quantum computer to do the processes of a normal computer on an infinite, like amount faster.
[00:40:28] Mr. Goose: [00:40:28] So will it be like they can do, they can process a one, a zero and an amateur that could either be zero or one? Or is it more they can process an integer that could either be zero or one me?
[00:40:41] Calvin: [00:40:41] Well, yeah, this is a really tough physics questions there. I think the, the way that I've, uh, read about it is, um, uh, what is it?
[00:40:54] The, it's the, uh, analogy of a cat in a box. Oh,
[00:40:58] Mr. Goose: [00:40:58] that's super
[00:40:58] Calvin: [00:40:58] position. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Where it could be alive or dead at the same time. That's basically quantum physics and that's, that's the concept of a zero. Yes. Thank you. Gab in the chat Schrodinger's cat that's right. Um, but yeah, so that's kind of the concept of quantum computing and I mean, the crazy thing is that like our entire security infrastructure.
[00:41:25] Is is built on this idea that, that it's too hard to crack, right? So when you introduced quantum computing, it's like, it's not as blockchain. That's a problem. It's literally our entire data infrastructure. Yeah. And a hundred percent, that's kind of a crazy thing. But you know, at the same time, quantum computing, it's not like it's going to happen overnight.
[00:41:48] Mr. Goose: [00:41:48] Yeah. And it's not like it's going to be globally distributed in like the next 10 years. The first time we find quantum computing, it's going to be, you know, siloed within national governments or something like that. And I think, yeah, go ahead. I was gonna say, I don't even think the first attack would be on something like blockchain.
[00:42:07] It would definitely be on, you know, some national security level stuff. So.
[00:42:12] Calvin: [00:42:12] Yeah. Yeah. Well, so quantum computing already exists. It just exists in a very limited state. So like Google, um, they came out with a story, I want to say maybe a couple of years ago where they, they essentially said that they achieved quantum supremacy, which I think was kind of a marketing gimmick because it still wasn't powerful enough to.
[00:42:36] Um, compete with a real computer. And the reason being that like these, these quantum computers have to live in a state of like near absolute zero. So they're like contained inside labs and they're, they're super big and bulky, you know? So they have to like the environment of, to achieve quantum state is very, very hard.
[00:42:55] Um, right. So it's definitely like. The, the, what happened though, is that they actually achieved quantum state and they, they solved an algorithm or something in a really, really short amount of time.
[00:43:08] Mr. Goose: [00:43:08] I had no idea. The future is here, man,
[00:43:12] Calvin: [00:43:12] that his future is
[00:43:13] Mr. Goose: [00:43:13] closer. I'm going to be saying this so much and you're going to get annoyed with me saying it, but the next 10 years will like nothing like the last 30.
[00:43:21] I'm going to repeat that. And I'm going to tattooed on my forehead. Do, is it real?
[00:43:27] Calvin: [00:43:27] It is. Israel is real though. You know, it's the exponential growth of computing. Yeah. The crazy thing about like computers is. The more advanced, they get the more advanced they can make themselves. So like, you know, we use computers for, for everything, but as soon as we hit quantum computing, you've, you've already leaped.
[00:43:51] It would be thousands of times I had, yeah, it'd
[00:43:54] Mr. Goose: [00:43:54] be the equivalent to like the singularity, right.
[00:43:57] Calvin: [00:43:57] For computer pretty much. Yeah. Yeah. And that's the thing about singularity too, is that like, you know, computers will get to a point where they can, they can literally code them their own stuff and that's, that's the crazy singularity that's, you know, like,
[00:44:14] Mr. Goose: [00:44:14] yeah.
[00:44:15] Yeah. I think I'm shy. I even forget what the heck I was just going to say, uh, No, I lost it. I lost it,
[00:44:26] Calvin: [00:44:26] but it's gone. Yeah. It's lost in the quantum space, you know, quantum computing, I'm just going to geek out here for a second. So there was a, um, it's, it's ridiculously fascinating stuff. I highly highly recommend looking into it.
[00:44:39] Cause I mean, even quantum, even quantum state is just, uh, like just a fascinating concept, but yeah, they, they actually achieved like, so there's this thing called quantum entanglement and. Uh, essentially it means like two different particles are entangled together. So when something, when one particle reacts the other one reacts, but they're not actually connected, it's just quantum entanglement.
[00:45:05] And then once they're entangled, you can separate them as far away as you want. They're still entailed. And so there was like this, they performed an experiment of entangling, two particles, and they sent one particle up into a satellite or whatever, and they successfully did, um, Non I'm totally gonna screw this up.
[00:45:26] Essentially. They sent a message without anything to intercept
[00:45:32] Mr. Goose: [00:45:32] any way. So like, yeah, you enter a black hole. Gravity is too, you know, there's just too much gravity for anything to escape it. Right? So that means no wavelength. No, nothing can escape. So does that mean if you send a quantum entangled particle into a black hole, it could, it could transfer a message outside of gravity.
[00:45:54] Since it's an awesome idea, dude.
[00:45:57] Calvin: [00:45:57] That's insane. No. Yeah, but that's the crazy stuff, right? Like, Oh my God. And that's why it's like, that's actually that's encryption to the max. Like you can't decipher anything as long as you have the other end of the entanglement, you get the message or get the data. And so that's like kind of the concept of, you know, um, quantum computing and why it's such a big deal, but yeah,
[00:46:20] Mr. Goose: [00:46:20] that's so crazy.
[00:46:21] Yeah. The future is crazy.
[00:46:24] Calvin: [00:46:24] Yeah, it is crazy. I it's still, I think a little ways off, but yeah, same, like, you know, it's always, it's fun to talk about and geek out at all a hundred
[00:46:33] Mr. Goose: [00:46:33] percent.
[00:46:35] Calvin: [00:46:35] Cool. All right. Well, um, this has been fun. That was a really entertaining conversation. Um, do you have
[00:46:42] Mr. Goose: [00:46:42] anything I want to add?
[00:46:44] No, that was, uh, that was good. I was, you know, like, like I was saying, I, I, you know, we can all be happy about the Supercycle thing, but I've been brewing a little bit about it recently, as you know, these top signals have been called in and Supercycle calls are coming out. And I, you know, I've been thinking about like how messed up, you know, Mass adoption would truly mean and like why we would get there and just, uh, I'm happy.
[00:47:08] I got to at least share a little bit, even though, you know, it's hard to get out everything in my head and, uh, and, uh, you know, conversation format, but yeah. I was like, you know, yeah. I lay out a foundation for me to understand, like, you know, super cycles fund mass adoption would be great, but the reason why that would likely happen
[00:47:40] Calvin: [00:47:40] We want to thank you for listening to episode four of the crypto drip. I hope you enjoyed it as much as we enjoyed talking about it. You can find myself Calvin at Twitter at cryptos, Calvin. You can find gifs on Twitter at goose of crypto. And of course you can find us. On all a social media accounts at the crypto drip until next time, keep that brew hot. .