Monday Market Outlook #8
The Crypto market has lost all sense of excitement over the last two months. The coverage on death crosses, bear markets, and bias on-chain analytics has been overwhelming.
It's hard to stay objective about the course and trajectory of the markets when seemingly everyone who has an opinion also has a bias. Let's cut through the noise and address the biggest issues today.
- The Great Migration
- On-Chain & Technical Analysis
- Grayscale Update
The Great Migration
As we are all acutely aware, China banned a majority of Bitcoin mining operation in various region of the country causing a wave of hash power crashing downwards for the Bitcoin network as these mining companies pack up and look to move operation elsewhere.
As 50% of the industrial mining base for Bitcoins network relocates hastily, mining power seems to have had a reversal. Can this mean that certain mining operations are beginning to turn the lights on in their new jurisdictions?
As we can see, the uptick in hashrate correlates quite nicely with the MNPC chart which indicates the inflow and outflow of Bitcoins from miners. This just means Bitcoin miners are currently accumulating Bitcoin instead of selling them. A lot of capital was likely needed to facilitate a move of this magnitude for these mining operations, so a wave of miner capitulation and selling makes sense to cover costs.
These charts showing miner activity boil over nicely into historical on-chain analytical charts as well.
Let's take a look at how Bitcoin metrics have been acting on-chain during the largest forced mining capitulation in Bitcoin history. First up is the Puell Multiple, which tracks the value of Bitcoins issued on the network relative to the profitability of miner revenue.
Here is the Puell Multiple on the Bitcoin price historical timeframe. This clearly shows a buy opportunity as we have just touched the green box, an area of notable accumulation periods. If we zoom in, we can see a nice uptick like we saw with the previous two charts.
Again, this could be an indication miners are starting to re-enter the network and accumulate Bitcoin once again.
Another metric that is worth being noted is the ENG chart vs Bitcoin, which tracks the net users (wallets) with x-amount of Bitcoin. This chart clearly shows user growth despite current price decline, a clear discrepancy.
While these on-chain metric show us some nice bullish theories, what does the price action say?
Well, on the BTC daily chart, it looks like Bitcoin is well within the 30-42k range, indicated by the yellow horizontal lines. The price action seems to be tightening towards the middle of the range as well, ready for a breakout.
The interesting story, however, is in the daily RSI which has been in a continuous descending trend of lower highs for the past 7 months. Looking to have bottomed out during the miner capitulation phase of the migration, the RSI has been making steady higher highs and tightening the move to the upper edge of the trendline once more. A breakout to the upside here would be very good for Bitcoin.
The Grayscale manipulation is undoubtedly still taking place, read my previous Outlook to familiarize yourself with the notion. July 18th is the unlock date for late investors to the Grayscale 'premium' trade which has been championed as the main driver of the most recent run up to $64k per Bitcoin.
Remember, there are multiple positioned investors within the trade all looking to deploy different strategies to hedge their own bet. Not all GBTC buyers within that July tranche are looking to sell their GBTC. Some are positioned in shorts that will need to be covered via spot buys as well. Some won't sell at a loss when Grayscale is so close to transitioning into an ETF. Others, however, may indeed sell their GBTC at NAV and if the market is immature enough, can close their shorts in the green as well due to investor wariness.
Either way, the JP Morgan article stating Bitcoin will see only significant downside pressure because of this, is one of those pieces we talked about that is extremely bias. The reality, like we just explained, is that there are numerous positioned investors all looking to do different things, and all likely at separate times. It doesn't make sense that there will be a one time sell-side event from the GBTC January class.
With a better understanding of the Grayscale unlock event, price action tightening up, and on-chain metrics showing bullish reversals in various sectors of the network, I can see Bitcoin making volatile moves to the upside in the coming weeks.