The Drip #4
The biggest news negatively affecting open markets is, unfortunately, an echo to 2020 market narratives: Covid spikes and potential lockdown.
Over the past few days, India has put staggering numbers on the single-day case/death charts, running up to a record-shattering 315k/2.1k respectively.
But why does this reflect US Markets, and Bitcoin specifically, and why should you care? There are a couple of reasons:
- First, the bigger the narrative, the harder it is to dispel. Whenever a potential lockdown threatens large enough economies, global markets react — and rightly so, as lockdowns are abysmal for economies at scale. Without the right counter measures taken on the policy-level, lockdowns could cascade globally.
- Second, India has over 1 billion people and an uncontrolled outbreak of Covid could produce new strains of the novel Covid-19 virus consequently prolonging the pandemic.
Keep an eye on how other markets start to perform during this time, as it will undoubtedly have an impact. The silver lining, though, is that the counter measures hinted at above have historically been quantitative easing in the form of money-printing.
If the pandemic becomes prolonged and further lockdowns ensue not just in India, but other countries as well, expect more relief rollout.
Governments have printed over $25 trillion worldwide...the Bitcoin narrative will only get stronger.
Instead of our standard technical analysis, we wanted to share a few charts (available to the public) that look astoundingly bullish. These charts should solidify your conviction that this bullrun is only getting started, as they have ours.
This is the Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average, and plots heat signatures based off Bitcoin block size. The top right red fractal (shown within the rectangle) represents where we are now. If history is any indication, we are poised for a parabolic move upwards.
This is the Bitcoin 2-Year Moving Average and shows all previous cycle tops close out above the red trend-line. It may look close, but keep in mind the time-frame. We still have a ways to go. Also, remember 2013/14 run closed out twice in the same cycle. If this is indeed a super cycle – which all global macro narratives say it is – we could see multiple tops within this cycle.
This is the Bitcoin MVRV ratio (Market Value / Realized Value) and shows that all previous cycle tops broke through the red resistance zone. The line action indicates we are accumulating in a bull flag formation.
If it's not painfully obvious, we are in the middle of history right now: the greatest re-distribution of wealth in recorded history.
IOHK has officially announced the Africa Special, a long awaited event in which Cardano and others will announce Africa related projects, partnerships, and most importantly government contracts.
The event will be live-streamed on April 29th. You can register for the event here.
Despite some less-than ideal price action on the ADAUSD pair lately, let's take a macro perspective here and look at the ADABTC pair. The rectangle box along the bottom of the chart marks major resistance-flipped-support that we are accumulating on.
The blue horizontal lines at the bottom are 550 days of accumulation. We are coiling up nice and tight, and we think there is more upside to come in the long-term. Keep watching this chart in the days and weeks to come.
You thought Bitcoin looked bullish? This is the current altcoin market cap chart. You see the massive rounded bottom on the second level? That's over 1,000 days of accumulation. Once altcoins break through that previous all time high, we'll be doing laps around the solar system.
Exciting times ahead!